The Hoops Junkie

 
Last week I previewed the Midwest and made my predictions, which turned out to be terrible. This region has gone from being the toughest to the weakest pretty quickly due to the upsets of Kansas and Georgetwon, and the injury to Kalin Lucas. It seems like anything is possible in the Midwest now, but here’s what I look for.

 
(5) Michigan State vs. (9) Northern iowa

• Current Line - Michigan State minus 1
• KenPom Ratings – #24 Northern Iowa (53 on O, 14 on D) vs #26 Michigan St (35 on O, 30 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Kalin Lucas (Michigan St) – out with injury
• Fringe NBA Players - Durrell Summers (Michigan St)
• The Pick- I honestly didn’t get to see enough of this Northern Iowa team yet to give very good analysis on this one, but I’ve liked what I have seen from them. While Kansas was the better team, and the game was an upset, it didn’t really appear to be fluky. UNI controlled the tempo, played solid defense, and they have shooters on the perimeter in bangers inside who did a great job on the boards. So as much as I like Tom Izzo, and as hard as it is to pick his teams to lose, I don’t think they’ll have enough in this one without Kalin Lucas, and with a hobbled Chris Allen. Maybe backup point guard Korie Lucious will come through big the absence of Lucas, and maybe Darrell Summers will have another huge game to put MSU over the top, but I think Northern Iowa is probably the better team here with the personnel that will be on the floor. Winner – Northern Iowa continue reading »

 
Last week I previewed the West and made my predictions, which have been pretty decent so far as I had three of the four remaining teams in the region. I went with Vanderbilt instead of Butler, and actually had UTEP beating Butler in the first round. Here is what to look for in the West Region this weekend.

 
(1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler

• Current Line - Syracuse minus 6.5
• KenPom Ratings – #4 Syracuse (7 on O, 17 on D) vs #17 Butler (50 on O, 10 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Gordon Hayward (Butler)
• Fringe NBA Players - Andy Rautins (Syracuse)
• The Pick – I probably underrated Butler a bit when I picked them to lose in the first round to UTEP. In the first half it looked like I would be right, but the Bulldogs played a great second half behind the hot shooting of Shelvin Mack. They definitely have a chance against the top seed Syracuse, who will once again be playing without their starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but it will take a great effort. Butler will need another solid defensive performace, and they’ll need to find a hot shooter or two to make 3’s over top of the Syracuse zone. This Butler team hasn’t shot the ball as well as some of their teams in the past though, and their best player, Gordon Hayward, has struggled with his outside shot for most of the season and for the first two games in the tourney. A better shooting night from Hayward is almost essential for Butler to score enough points to keep up with the more talented Syracuse squad. Syracuse has been inconsistent at times this season, but they played great last weekend, and I think they’ll do the same in this game against Butler and cruise to the regional final. Winner – Syracuse continue reading »

Last week I previewed the East  and made my predictions, which actually turned out fairly well in this region. Kentucky and West Virginia were easy choices to make the Sweet 16, and I missed on Cornell, but I think picking Washington pretty much makes up for it. Here is what to look for in the East Region this weekend.

 
(1) Kentucky vs. (12) Cornell

• Current Line - Kentucky minus 8.5
• KenPom Ratings – #3 Kentucky (10 on O, 8 on D) vs #44 Cornell (9 on O, 131 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – John Wall (Kentucky), DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky)
• Fringe NBA Players - Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Ryan Wittman (Cornell)
• The Pick – This is the matchup probably being most discussed in the media as the Ivy Leaguers take on a Kentucky team loaded with NBA talent. Cornell was extremely impressive in the first two rounds winning convincingly in both games over solid teams in Temple and Wisconsin. They’ll have a totally different task ahead of them in this game though facing Kentucky, who also won with ease in both of their games last weekend. Point guard Louis Dale, small forward Ryan Wittman, and big man Jeff Foote give the Big Red very good balance offensively, and they shot the ball and ran their offense very efficiently in the first 2 rounds. And although Temple and Wisconsin are both good defensive clubs, Kentucky brings another level of athleticism to the table, and they’ll look to pressure the ball and get out on the hot 3 point shooters of Cornell. Kentucky will need to use their defense and rebounding to help get their offense started as they’ll want to push the pace and make this game as up-tempo as possible. They have far superior athletes, and the more wide open they can make this game, the more it plays to their advantage. It will be interesting to see if Cornell can frustrate them and keep it close. If they shoot the ball like they did last weekend, they’ll definitely have a chance. They proved earlier in the season that they’re capable of hanging with the big boys when they almost won at Kansas, so there’s no doubt that they’ll be confident in this one. Ultimately though, I think Kenutcky will prevail. Wall and Bledsoe have it going right now, Cousins and Patterson are tough inside, and you can bet that Coach Cal is stressing all week how important it is to get out on the Cornell shooters. Winner – Kentucky continue reading »

 
Last week I previewed the South Region and made my predictions, which turned out to be decent but not great. My picks for the regional final, Baylor and Duke, are both still alive, but I picked the wrong team to upset Villanova (I had Richmond instead of St. Mary’s), and I only had Purdue winning one game. With the matchups set for this weekend, here is what to look for in the South Region.

 
(1) Duke vs. (4) Purdue

• Current Line – Duke minus 8
• KenPom Ratings – #1 Duke (2 on O, 3 on D) vs #13 Purdue (67 on O, 4 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Kyle Singler (Duke)
• Fringe NBA Players – Jon Scheyer (Duke), Mason Plumlee (Duke), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
• The Pick – Both of these teams are extremely well coached and very solid on the defensive end. Purdue obviously lost a ton when Robbie Hummel got hurt, and it will probably show up even more in this game against a very big Duke team. They’re now playing JaJuan Johnson and four guards, and the guards they do have aren’t talented enough offensively to really utilize any speed and quickness advantages they may have if they find a Duke big like Lance Thomas or Mason Plumlee guarding them. Matt Painter should be commended for the coaching job he’s done, as should the Purdue players for gutting out two wins when most had them losing in the first round, but I think this is where it ends for them.  The Boilers will probably struggle to score against the Duke defense, and even if Purdue does on a good job of defending the Duke perimeter trio of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler (it should be fun to watch the smaller Chris Kramer pester Singler, assuming that is who Kramer guards), I think the Duke bigs will be able to offensive rebound and score easy baskets inside to make the difference. Winner – Duke continue reading »