The Hoops Junkie

 
Last week I previewed the Midwest and made my predictions, which turned out to be terrible. This region has gone from being the toughest to the weakest pretty quickly due to the upsets of Kansas and Georgetwon, and the injury to Kalin Lucas. It seems like anything is possible in the Midwest now, but here’s what I look for.

 
(5) Michigan State vs. (9) Northern iowa

• Current Line - Michigan State minus 1
• KenPom Ratings – #24 Northern Iowa (53 on O, 14 on D) vs #26 Michigan St (35 on O, 30 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Kalin Lucas (Michigan St) – out with injury
• Fringe NBA Players - Durrell Summers (Michigan St)
• The Pick- I honestly didn’t get to see enough of this Northern Iowa team yet to give very good analysis on this one, but I’ve liked what I have seen from them. While Kansas was the better team, and the game was an upset, it didn’t really appear to be fluky. UNI controlled the tempo, played solid defense, and they have shooters on the perimeter in bangers inside who did a great job on the boards. So as much as I like Tom Izzo, and as hard as it is to pick his teams to lose, I don’t think they’ll have enough in this one without Kalin Lucas, and with a hobbled Chris Allen. Maybe backup point guard Korie Lucious will come through big the absence of Lucas, and maybe Darrell Summers will have another huge game to put MSU over the top, but I think Northern Iowa is probably the better team here with the personnel that will be on the floor. Winner – Northern Iowa continue reading »

 
Last week I previewed the West and made my predictions, which have been pretty decent so far as I had three of the four remaining teams in the region. I went with Vanderbilt instead of Butler, and actually had UTEP beating Butler in the first round. Here is what to look for in the West Region this weekend.

 
(1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler

• Current Line - Syracuse minus 6.5
• KenPom Ratings – #4 Syracuse (7 on O, 17 on D) vs #17 Butler (50 on O, 10 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Gordon Hayward (Butler)
• Fringe NBA Players - Andy Rautins (Syracuse)
• The Pick – I probably underrated Butler a bit when I picked them to lose in the first round to UTEP. In the first half it looked like I would be right, but the Bulldogs played a great second half behind the hot shooting of Shelvin Mack. They definitely have a chance against the top seed Syracuse, who will once again be playing without their starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but it will take a great effort. Butler will need another solid defensive performace, and they’ll need to find a hot shooter or two to make 3’s over top of the Syracuse zone. This Butler team hasn’t shot the ball as well as some of their teams in the past though, and their best player, Gordon Hayward, has struggled with his outside shot for most of the season and for the first two games in the tourney. A better shooting night from Hayward is almost essential for Butler to score enough points to keep up with the more talented Syracuse squad. Syracuse has been inconsistent at times this season, but they played great last weekend, and I think they’ll do the same in this game against Butler and cruise to the regional final. Winner – Syracuse continue reading »

Last week I previewed the East  and made my predictions, which actually turned out fairly well in this region. Kentucky and West Virginia were easy choices to make the Sweet 16, and I missed on Cornell, but I think picking Washington pretty much makes up for it. Here is what to look for in the East Region this weekend.

 
(1) Kentucky vs. (12) Cornell

• Current Line - Kentucky minus 8.5
• KenPom Ratings – #3 Kentucky (10 on O, 8 on D) vs #44 Cornell (9 on O, 131 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – John Wall (Kentucky), DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky)
• Fringe NBA Players - Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Ryan Wittman (Cornell)
• The Pick – This is the matchup probably being most discussed in the media as the Ivy Leaguers take on a Kentucky team loaded with NBA talent. Cornell was extremely impressive in the first two rounds winning convincingly in both games over solid teams in Temple and Wisconsin. They’ll have a totally different task ahead of them in this game though facing Kentucky, who also won with ease in both of their games last weekend. Point guard Louis Dale, small forward Ryan Wittman, and big man Jeff Foote give the Big Red very good balance offensively, and they shot the ball and ran their offense very efficiently in the first 2 rounds. And although Temple and Wisconsin are both good defensive clubs, Kentucky brings another level of athleticism to the table, and they’ll look to pressure the ball and get out on the hot 3 point shooters of Cornell. Kentucky will need to use their defense and rebounding to help get their offense started as they’ll want to push the pace and make this game as up-tempo as possible. They have far superior athletes, and the more wide open they can make this game, the more it plays to their advantage. It will be interesting to see if Cornell can frustrate them and keep it close. If they shoot the ball like they did last weekend, they’ll definitely have a chance. They proved earlier in the season that they’re capable of hanging with the big boys when they almost won at Kansas, so there’s no doubt that they’ll be confident in this one. Ultimately though, I think Kenutcky will prevail. Wall and Bledsoe have it going right now, Cousins and Patterson are tough inside, and you can bet that Coach Cal is stressing all week how important it is to get out on the Cornell shooters. Winner – Kentucky continue reading »

 
Last week I previewed the South Region and made my predictions, which turned out to be decent but not great. My picks for the regional final, Baylor and Duke, are both still alive, but I picked the wrong team to upset Villanova (I had Richmond instead of St. Mary’s), and I only had Purdue winning one game. With the matchups set for this weekend, here is what to look for in the South Region.

 
(1) Duke vs. (4) Purdue

• Current Line – Duke minus 8
• KenPom Ratings – #1 Duke (2 on O, 3 on D) vs #13 Purdue (67 on O, 4 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Kyle Singler (Duke)
• Fringe NBA Players – Jon Scheyer (Duke), Mason Plumlee (Duke), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
• The Pick – Both of these teams are extremely well coached and very solid on the defensive end. Purdue obviously lost a ton when Robbie Hummel got hurt, and it will probably show up even more in this game against a very big Duke team. They’re now playing JaJuan Johnson and four guards, and the guards they do have aren’t talented enough offensively to really utilize any speed and quickness advantages they may have if they find a Duke big like Lance Thomas or Mason Plumlee guarding them. Matt Painter should be commended for the coaching job he’s done, as should the Purdue players for gutting out two wins when most had them losing in the first round, but I think this is where it ends for them.  The Boilers will probably struggle to score against the Duke defense, and even if Purdue does on a good job of defending the Duke perimeter trio of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler (it should be fun to watch the smaller Chris Kramer pester Singler, assuming that is who Kramer guards), I think the Duke bigs will be able to offensive rebound and score easy baskets inside to make the difference. Winner – Duke continue reading »

 
So far I’ve done previews of the West Region, South Region, and the East Region, so now I’m finally getting to the strongest bracket, which is the Midwest. Kansas was awarded the top overall seed in the tournament by the selection committee, but it certainly looks like they got the toughest draw. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis. continue reading »

So far I’ve done previews of the West Region and the South Region, and now I’m tackling the East Regional, which looks to be the second toughest of the four, highlighted by top seeded Kentucky and Big East tourney champ West Virgina, who many thought would receive a number one seed. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis. continue reading »

I started off with a preview of the West Region, which I said was the weakest of the four regions. But after looking a little closer at this South Regional, man is it brutal. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis. continue reading »

As I begin breaking down the 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket, I’m starting with the West Regional. It seems that the consensus is that the South Region (Duke’s bracket) is the weakest, but I think this one is even softer. Syracuse will probably be playing at least the first weekend without starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but if they can get through that and play well the second weekend, then I think they’re easily the best team here. Anything can happen in March Madness, but Syracuse, along with Kentucky and Kansas, have been the best teams in the country all season long. Here’s a closer look at what the Cuse will face as they try to make their way to the Final Four in Indianapolis. continue reading »

 
Since I’ve now seen enough college basketball this season to start to form opinions on who I believe are the best prospects for the 2010 NBA Draft, I thought I’d take a look at how my rankings stack up with some of the other sites who cover the NBA Draft. DraftExpress and the NBA Draft page on ESPN are the sites I read and respect the most when it comes to draft coverage. Both are very thorough and have insider access to scouts, NBA GM’s, and game tape that I’m not privy to. This certainly makes them a more respected source for measuring a player’s NBA Draft stock, but I still trust my own evaluations and form my own opinions on players. I would be stubborn not to at least take their scouting reports into consideration, but I’m confident enough in myself to still think independently. Here is my current big board of the top NBA Draft prospects currently playing college basketball.

 
While my rankings are fluid, and there is still plenty of time left in the season for my opinion on player to change quite a bit, I’m going to take a look at some guys who I seem to like quite a bit more than the trusted scouting sites, using their top 100 prospect lists. Here are the links to ESPN top 100 by Chad Ford, and the DraftExpress Top 100. And while we’re at it, here are top 100’s from 2 other sites – nbadraft.net, which is also a good site and has been around for a long time, and NBA Draft Insider, which is a new site that I don’t really know anything about, but I threw in since they have a big board to compare with.

 
I’m sure I’ll end up wrong on some of these players, but it will be interesting to look back and see what I or they may have overlooked when evaluating some of these guys.

Players who I think are underrated:

• Klay Thompson: 10 (DX: 50, ESPN: 56, draft.net: NR, insider: 58) – I’m going off a small sample size here, but I really like this kid… and obviously way more than most do. Here’s what I wrote about him in my first edition of this years’s rankings on January, 11th when I had him at 14 – “I have him here based on limited viewing, but I really liked what I saw of him. Not a super athlete and needs to get stronger, but he can really shoot it, and his feel for the game and use of fakes enable him to still be able to create his own shot and make plays.”  I don’t really have a whole let to add to that. He is only a sophomore and I’ve heard speculation that he probably won’t declare this year, but I’m ranking all of the college players as prospects if they were all eligible for this draft. Thompson is still skinny and isn’t a great athlete, but I just think he has that special thing about him where he just really knows how to play basketball. It’s easy to get caught up in physical profile and athletcism, as they’re very important for how a player will translate to the NBA, but I think sometimes a player’s feel and understanding of the game can be overlooked. Thompson is on a crappy team, so he doesn’t get much exposure, and he has to try and do too much for them offensively, but he’s a scorer and a great shooter, and his craftiness and feel make him an excellent 2 guard prospect in my eyes. Maybe I haven’t seen him enough, since I seem to be way off the common perception of him, but I like what I’ve seen so far. continue reading »

1. John Wall (Kentucky) 6′4″ Freshman, PG (1)
2. Evan Turner (Ohio St.) 6′7″ Junior, SG/SF (2)
3. DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky) 6′10″ Freshman, C/PF (10)
4. Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest) 6′9″ Sophomore, PF (3)
5. Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) 6′7″ Junior, SF/some PF (5) continue reading »