The Hoops Junkie

 
Last week I previewed the Midwest and made my predictions, which turned out to be terrible. This region has gone from being the toughest to the weakest pretty quickly due to the upsets of Kansas and Georgetwon, and the injury to Kalin Lucas. It seems like anything is possible in the Midwest now, but here’s what I look for.

 
(5) Michigan State vs. (9) Northern iowa

• Current Line - Michigan State minus 1
• KenPom Ratings – #24 Northern Iowa (53 on O, 14 on D) vs #26 Michigan St (35 on O, 30 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Kalin Lucas (Michigan St) – out with injury
• Fringe NBA Players - Durrell Summers (Michigan St)
• The Pick- I honestly didn’t get to see enough of this Northern Iowa team yet to give very good analysis on this one, but I’ve liked what I have seen from them. While Kansas was the better team, and the game was an upset, it didn’t really appear to be fluky. UNI controlled the tempo, played solid defense, and they have shooters on the perimeter in bangers inside who did a great job on the boards. So as much as I like Tom Izzo, and as hard as it is to pick his teams to lose, I don’t think they’ll have enough in this one without Kalin Lucas, and with a hobbled Chris Allen. Maybe backup point guard Korie Lucious will come through big the absence of Lucas, and maybe Darrell Summers will have another huge game to put MSU over the top, but I think Northern Iowa is probably the better team here with the personnel that will be on the floor. Winner – Northern Iowa

 
(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Tennessee

• Current Line - Ohio State minus 4.5
• KenPom Ratings – #5 Ohio St (7 on O, 23 on D) vs #31 Tennessee (90 on O, 8 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Evan Turner (Ohio St)
• Fringe NBA Players - William Buford (Ohio St), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee), Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
• The Pick- This could be a very interesting game. Tennessee pressures the ball, has good athletes, plays great defense, and uses their depth, and they’ll do their best to slow down a very good Ohio State offense. Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball this year, but there is no debating he’s had trouble with turnovers. The Vols will do their best to continue that trend, presumably with JP Prince guarding Turner, and help from the rest of the defense. Ohio State doesn’t like to use it’s bench either, so Tennessee will try to gradually wear them down with their pressure and depth. So while I like Ohio State to win and advance here, this one definitely has upset potential. One key factor will be the 3 point shooting of Jon Diebler. He’s been hot from behind the arc, and his presence really helps take some of the pressure off Turner. William Buford and David Lighty are also capable of stepping up to make a few plays and knock down shots as well. On defense, Ohio St big man Dallas Lauderdale will need to stay out of foul trouble, and they’ll need a team effort on the glass. Tennessee does have some big bodies in Brian Williams and Wayne Chism, but they’re not huge threats in the post, which is something that could normally give the Buckeyes some trouble. This should be a fun one to watch, but I think Ohio State moves on to the regional final in what has been a crazy part of the bracket so far. Winner - Ohio State 

For the regional final, I guess I now have to change my pick, and I’ll go with the new favorites in the region, Ohio State, to move on to Indianapolis to play in The Final Four. I wouldn’t be surprised to see anything happen in these games though.

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