I didn’t do the full 24 hour marathon of college hoops on ESPN yesterday, but I did manage to watch quite a bit. And while it is way too early to come to conclusions about teams or players, I did have a few observations from yesterday.

 
• Somehow San Diego State beating Gonzaga last night and now getting hyped as the best team on the west coast is a surprise. I had them at #14 in my preseason rankings and didn’t understand why they weren’t getting more love nationally. They have everybody back from what was a solid team last season, and they even added some perimeter shooting that they needed from transfer James Rahon. The Aztecs strength is their frontcourt though, where they cause matchups problems by basically playing 3 athletic combo forwards across the frontline in Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, and Malcolm Thomas. They could be vulnerable against a team with a good big man who could hurt them in the post, but they take can advantage on the other end with their speed and quickness advantages. The Mountain West looks to be strong again this season with San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico, so it will be interesting to see how things play out there.
• Quincy Acy was a beast yesterday for Baylor. While he is obviously undersized as an NBA prospect as a 4, he makes up for it with tremendous length, athleticism, toughness, and energy. His skill level and shooting ability are still well below par, but they did look to be improved at least slightly. I was always intrigued last season, as I loved his physical tools and his aggressive mentality (he tries to dunk everything if he’s in the basket area), but if he’s added a bit of polish, he’s a legitimate NBA draft prospect. You can find my NBA draft big board here, where I’ll be making updates throughout the season. I try not to make quick decisions based on 1 or 2 games or rank guys that I really haven’t seen play, so right now the board is nowhere near complete.
• Florida was disappointing yesterday, especially in the second half, in their loss to Ohio State, but I disagree that they’re overrated. Maybe I’ll be wrong, and they’ll be this year’s Texas, but I think they’re going to be really good. They’re one of the most well rounded teams in the country in terms of having talent, size, depth, shooting, etc.  Chandler Parsons didn’t have a great day yesterday, and I’d like to see him assert himself a bit more. And I’m not crazy about the decision-making of their guards (Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker), and that could potentially be their downfall, but I think they’ll end up in the top 5 or 10 when the regular season is over. I just don’t see many other teams that have their balance and depth in talent.
• Ohio State showed yesterday why they’re a Final 4 and national championship contender. The main concern and story you’ll hear all season for the Buckeyes will center around their point guard play and whether or not they can win with freshman Aaron Craft, but I think David Lighty and William Buford can take a tremendous amount of pressure off of him. They both stepped up their playmaking yesterday, and they’ll have plenty of time to continue that and display more of their all around games in the absence of Evan Turner. We know Jared Sullinger is a stud inside and Jon Diebler will fill it up from 3, but Lighty and Buford making plays on the wing will be a big key for them this season.

 
Last week I previewed the Midwest and made my predictions, which turned out to be terrible. This region has gone from being the toughest to the weakest pretty quickly due to the upsets of Kansas and Georgetwon, and the injury to Kalin Lucas. It seems like anything is possible in the Midwest now, but here’s what I look for.

 
(5) Michigan State vs. (9) Northern iowa

• Current Line - Michigan State minus 1
• KenPom Ratings – #24 Northern Iowa (53 on O, 14 on D) vs #26 Michigan St (35 on O, 30 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Kalin Lucas (Michigan St) – out with injury
• Fringe NBA Players - Durrell Summers (Michigan St)
• The Pick- I honestly didn’t get to see enough of this Northern Iowa team yet to give very good analysis on this one, but I’ve liked what I have seen from them. While Kansas was the better team, and the game was an upset, it didn’t really appear to be fluky. UNI controlled the tempo, played solid defense, and they have shooters on the perimeter in bangers inside who did a great job on the boards. So as much as I like Tom Izzo, and as hard as it is to pick his teams to lose, I don’t think they’ll have enough in this one without Kalin Lucas, and with a hobbled Chris Allen. Maybe backup point guard Korie Lucious will come through big the absence of Lucas, and maybe Darrell Summers will have another huge game to put MSU over the top, but I think Northern Iowa is probably the better team here with the personnel that will be on the floor. Winner – Northern Iowa

 
(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Tennessee

• Current Line - Ohio State minus 4.5
• KenPom Ratings – #5 Ohio St (7 on O, 23 on D) vs #31 Tennessee (90 on O, 8 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Evan Turner (Ohio St)
• Fringe NBA Players - William Buford (Ohio St), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee), Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
• The Pick- This could be a very interesting game. Tennessee pressures the ball, has good athletes, plays great defense, and uses their depth, and they’ll do their best to slow down a very good Ohio State offense. Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball this year, but there is no debating he’s had trouble with turnovers. The Vols will do their best to continue that trend, presumably with JP Prince guarding Turner, and help from the rest of the defense. Ohio State doesn’t like to use it’s bench either, so Tennessee will try to gradually wear them down with their pressure and depth. So while I like Ohio State to win and advance here, this one definitely has upset potential. One key factor will be the 3 point shooting of Jon Diebler. He’s been hot from behind the arc, and his presence really helps take some of the pressure off Turner. William Buford and David Lighty are also capable of stepping up to make a few plays and knock down shots as well. On defense, Ohio St big man Dallas Lauderdale will need to stay out of foul trouble, and they’ll need a team effort on the glass. Tennessee does have some big bodies in Brian Williams and Wayne Chism, but they’re not huge threats in the post, which is something that could normally give the Buckeyes some trouble. This should be a fun one to watch, but I think Ohio State moves on to the regional final in what has been a crazy part of the bracket so far. Winner - Ohio State 

For the regional final, I guess I now have to change my pick, and I’ll go with the new favorites in the region, Ohio State, to move on to Indianapolis to play in The Final Four. I wouldn’t be surprised to see anything happen in these games though.

 
Last week I previewed the West and made my predictions, which have been pretty decent so far as I had three of the four remaining teams in the region. I went with Vanderbilt instead of Butler, and actually had UTEP beating Butler in the first round. Here is what to look for in the West Region this weekend.

 
(1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler

• Current Line - Syracuse minus 6.5
• KenPom Ratings – #4 Syracuse (7 on O, 17 on D) vs #17 Butler (50 on O, 10 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Gordon Hayward (Butler)
• Fringe NBA Players - Andy Rautins (Syracuse)
• The Pick – I probably underrated Butler a bit when I picked them to lose in the first round to UTEP. In the first half it looked like I would be right, but the Bulldogs played a great second half behind the hot shooting of Shelvin Mack. They definitely have a chance against the top seed Syracuse, who will once again be playing without their starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but it will take a great effort. Butler will need another solid defensive performace, and they’ll need to find a hot shooter or two to make 3’s over top of the Syracuse zone. This Butler team hasn’t shot the ball as well as some of their teams in the past though, and their best player, Gordon Hayward, has struggled with his outside shot for most of the season and for the first two games in the tourney. A better shooting night from Hayward is almost essential for Butler to score enough points to keep up with the more talented Syracuse squad. Syracuse has been inconsistent at times this season, but they played great last weekend, and I think they’ll do the same in this game against Butler and cruise to the regional final. Winner – Syracuse

 
(2) Kansas State vs. (6) Xavier

• Current Line - Kansas State minus 4.5
• KenPom Ratings – #6 Kansas State (14 on O, 14 on D) vs #15 Xavier (17 on O, 36 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Jordan Crawford (Xavier)
• Fringe NBA Players - Jacob Pullen (Kansas St), Jamar Samuels (Kansas St), Wally Judge (Kansas St)
• The Pick - I already previewed this game last week as I predicted that these two teams would play eachother in the Sweet 16. Nothing has made me change my mind on my pick either. I think it will be closer than the 71-56 Kansas State victory earlier in the season, especially Jordan Crawford from Xavier keeps his hot hand going, but in the end, I still like Kansas State to win. Winner – Kansas State

 
For the regional final, I’m sticking with my original prediction, that Syracuse and Kansas State will battle it out, and that Syracuse will previal and move on to the Final Four.

Last week I previewed the East  and made my predictions, which actually turned out fairly well in this region. Kentucky and West Virginia were easy choices to make the Sweet 16, and I missed on Cornell, but I think picking Washington pretty much makes up for it. Here is what to look for in the East Region this weekend.

 
(1) Kentucky vs. (12) Cornell

• Current Line - Kentucky minus 8.5
• KenPom Ratings – #3 Kentucky (10 on O, 8 on D) vs #44 Cornell (9 on O, 131 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – John Wall (Kentucky), DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky)
• Fringe NBA Players - Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Ryan Wittman (Cornell)
• The Pick – This is the matchup probably being most discussed in the media as the Ivy Leaguers take on a Kentucky team loaded with NBA talent. Cornell was extremely impressive in the first two rounds winning convincingly in both games over solid teams in Temple and Wisconsin. They’ll have a totally different task ahead of them in this game though facing Kentucky, who also won with ease in both of their games last weekend. Point guard Louis Dale, small forward Ryan Wittman, and big man Jeff Foote give the Big Red very good balance offensively, and they shot the ball and ran their offense very efficiently in the first 2 rounds. And although Temple and Wisconsin are both good defensive clubs, Kentucky brings another level of athleticism to the table, and they’ll look to pressure the ball and get out on the hot 3 point shooters of Cornell. Kentucky will need to use their defense and rebounding to help get their offense started as they’ll want to push the pace and make this game as up-tempo as possible. They have far superior athletes, and the more wide open they can make this game, the more it plays to their advantage. It will be interesting to see if Cornell can frustrate them and keep it close. If they shoot the ball like they did last weekend, they’ll definitely have a chance. They proved earlier in the season that they’re capable of hanging with the big boys when they almost won at Kansas, so there’s no doubt that they’ll be confident in this one. Ultimately though, I think Kenutcky will prevail. Wall and Bledsoe have it going right now, Cousins and Patterson are tough inside, and you can bet that Coach Cal is stressing all week how important it is to get out on the Cornell shooters. Winner – Kentucky

 
(2) West Virginia vs. (11) Washington

• Current Line - West Virginia minus 4.5
• KenPom Ratings – #7 West Virginia (12 on O, 23 on D) vs #23 Washington (25 on O, 35 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Quincy Pondexter (Washington), Devin Ebanks (West Virginia)
• Fringe NBA Players - Abdul Gaddy (Washington), Kevin Jones (West Virginia), Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia)
• The Pick - I already previewed this game last week as I predicted that these two teams would play eachother in this round. One thing of note for this game is that West Virginia’s starting point guard, Truck Bryant is injured and will not play. I was already concerned with their lack of scoring and playmaking offensively against a Washington team that puts points on the board, and this will make it even tougher for WVU. I’m sticking with my underdog pick and going with Washington to advance to the regional final. Winner – Washington

 
For the regional final, I’m sticking with my original prediction, that Kentucky and Washington will meet, and that Kentucky will move on and advance to the Final Four.

 
Last week I previewed the South Region and made my predictions, which turned out to be decent but not great. My picks for the regional final, Baylor and Duke, are both still alive, but I picked the wrong team to upset Villanova (I had Richmond instead of St. Mary’s), and I only had Purdue winning one game. With the matchups set for this weekend, here is what to look for in the South Region.

 
(1) Duke vs. (4) Purdue

• Current Line – Duke minus 8
• KenPom Ratings – #1 Duke (2 on O, 3 on D) vs #13 Purdue (67 on O, 4 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players – Kyle Singler (Duke)
• Fringe NBA Players – Jon Scheyer (Duke), Mason Plumlee (Duke), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
• The Pick – Both of these teams are extremely well coached and very solid on the defensive end. Purdue obviously lost a ton when Robbie Hummel got hurt, and it will probably show up even more in this game against a very big Duke team. They’re now playing JaJuan Johnson and four guards, and the guards they do have aren’t talented enough offensively to really utilize any speed and quickness advantages they may have if they find a Duke big like Lance Thomas or Mason Plumlee guarding them. Matt Painter should be commended for the coaching job he’s done, as should the Purdue players for gutting out two wins when most had them losing in the first round, but I think this is where it ends for them.  The Boilers will probably struggle to score against the Duke defense, and even if Purdue does on a good job of defending the Duke perimeter trio of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler (it should be fun to watch the smaller Chris Kramer pester Singler, assuming that is who Kramer guards), I think the Duke bigs will be able to offensive rebound and score easy baskets inside to make the difference. Winner – Duke

 
(3) Baylor vs. (10) Saint Mary’s

• Current Line - Baylor minus 4
• KenPom Ratings – #9 Baylor (5 on O, 39 on D) vs #37 St. Mary’s (16 on O, 80 on D)
• Probable Future NBA Players - Ekpe Udoh (Baylor)
• Fringe NBA Players – Omar Samhan (St. Mary’s), Matthew Dellavedova (St. Mary’s), LaceDarius Dunn (Baylor)
• The Pick – Saint Mary’s has been one of the big stories of the tournament so far, and center Omar Samhan has led the way and been one of the breakout players going for 29 points in round one over Richmond and 32 points in round two over Villanova. This game against Baylor will be the first time in the tourney that they’ve faced a frontline that can matchup with Samhan though. Baylor has size, length, and some athleticism up front in Ekpe Udoh, Josh Lomers, Anthony Jones, and Quincy Acy, and they’ll do their best to slow down Samhan and make things much more difficult for him. Baylor will have to be sure to get out and challenge the 3 point shooters too. Matthew Dellavedova, Mickey McConnell, and Ben Allen are all capable of knocking down 3’s in bunches, and whether or not they’re making shots could end up being the difference in this game. And the Baylor perimeter players will need to be aggressive while still using good judgement in their shot selection. I’ve seen that be a problem for them at times, and they can’t afford to do that against a Saint Mary’s team that will make them pay on the other end. I do think this will be a close game, but I’m sticking with Baylor and picking them to advance to the regional final. Winner – Baylor

 
For the regional final, I’m sticking with my original prediction and going with Baylor to move on to Indianapolis to play in The Final Four.

 
So far I’ve done previews of the West Region, South Region, and the East Region, so now I’m finally getting to the strongest bracket, which is the Midwest. Kansas was awarded the top overall seed in the tournament by the selection committee, but it certainly looks like they got the toughest draw. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis.

 
What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Kansas (1), Ohio St (4), Maryland (10), Georgetown (12), Michigan St (24), Georgia Tech (27), Northern Iowa (32), Tennessee (35), UNLV (37), San Diego St (38), Oklahoma St (42), Houston (84), Ohio (100), New Mexico St (115), UCSB (152), Lehigh (182)
• The Top Dogs- Kansas and West Virginia are the teams that look to be top notch on both ends of the floor, according to the numbers. Kansas has the number 1 offensive efficiency ranking in the country, and a defensive efficiency ranking of 4. Ohio St is ranked 7th on offense and a solid 23rd on defense.
• The Stingy Defenses - Tennessee is the first team that stands out when it comes to defense-first teams in this region. They’re 100th on offense, but they’re a very good 8th in the country on defense. Northern Iowa is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 83rd on offense but a very solid 13th on defense. Georgia Tech is the other team here with a ranking of 58 on O and a much better 18 on D. 
• The Offensive Standouts - Georgetown and Maryland are the teams that stand out as being more efficient on offense. Georgetown ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and 33rd on defense, while Maryland ranks on 6th O and 38th on D. And a couple of the lower seeded team fit the bill here too. New Mexico St is a solid 45th on offense and a an atrocious 222nd on defense, while Houston is 39th on O and just 165th on D.
• Mediocre on Both Ends- Some of the middle seeded teams in this region fall in this group where they’re fairly even on both ends in terms of efficiency. Michigan has rankings of 38 on offense and 28 on defense. Oklahoma St is 35th on offense and 62nd on defense. UNLV is ranked 57 on offense and a better 31 on defense. And San Diego St is 42 on O and 43 on D.

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which teams have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top 2010 NBA Draft prospects. There is a lot of talent in this region.

• Legit NBA Talent - Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Xavier Henry (Kansas), Sherron Collins (Kansas), Evan Turner (Ohio St), Greg Monroe (Georgetown), Derrick Favors (Georgia Tech), Gani Lawal (Georgia Tech), Kalin Lucas (Michigan St), James Anderson (Oklahoma St)
• Fringe Prospects - Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), Aubrey Coleman (Houston)
• Need More Time To Tell - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Marcus Morris (Kansas), Iman Shumpert (Georgia Tech), William Buford (Ohio St), Kawhi Leonard (San Diego St), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee)

The Picks

 
Round 1

• (1) Kansas vs. (16) Lehigh -The Patriot League champs should be no match for the overall top seeded Jayhawks in round 1. Winner – Kansas
• (8) UNLV vs. (9) Northern Iowa - This is a matchup of a couple teams who unfortunately I only got to see play one time each during the season. I came away more impressed with Northern Iowa though. They looked to be sound defensively and versatile on offense with big bodies and shooters. UNLV will have the edge in terms of athleticism, but my gut has me leaning to Northern Iowa here in probably the first round matchup that I’m least informed about. Winner – Northern Iowa
• (5) Michigan St vs. (12) New Mexico St - New Mexico St can definitely get out in transition and score. They have a couple guards who can really make shots, andthey even won the WAC tournament playing a slightly slower pace, which is a good sign. They’ll be up against a Michigan St team that’s not coming in with much momentum but does have Tom Izzo, who has been as successful in the NCAA tournament as any coach in the country in the past decade. I think New Mexico St might be able to give the Spartans a scare with some hot shooting, but Izzowill have Michigan St ready to play, they’ll defend, win the battle of the boards, and they’ll have a solid point guard leading the way in Kalin Lucas. I think that’s enough for the win. Winner – Michigan St
• (4) Maryland vs. (13) Houston - This game should be another track meet with two teams that can score and like to get out and push the tempo. There’s an outstanding individual matchup in thisone with the nation’s leading scorer, Aubrey Coleman for Houston, and the ACC Player of the Year and big personality Greivis Vasquez. Coleman is extremely tough to stay in front of andcan flat out score, and Houston went on a nice run to win the Conference USA Tournament, but I think Maryland is probably too much for them to handle. Coleman could keep this interesting, and it will probably be fun to watch, but I think the Terps come away with the victory. Winner – Maryland
• (6) Tennessee vs. (11) San Diego St -  This is another great matchup of two very athletic basketball teams. San Diego St plays across the frontline with three extremely athletic forwards in Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, and Kawhi Leonard. All three are versatile, can run the floor, and step away from the basket offensively, but I think Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee team has the personnel keep them in check in guys like JP Prince, Wayne Chism, and Kenny Hall. AndPearl has proven to be a master motivator when it comes to having his team ready play, with proof in their regular season win over then number ones Kansas and Kentucky. Some excellent athleticism will be on display here, and and may come down to who shoots the ball better, but I’m picking Tennessee in a close one. Winner – Tennessee
•  (3) Georgetown vs. (14) Ohio - I don’t really know a thing about Ohio to be honest, but I really like the way Georgetown has been playing, and I’m assuming they’ll have too much talent in this game. Winner – Georgetown
• (7) Oklahoma St vs. (10) Georgia Tech - This is a tough call, and I could go either way here, partly because these are two teams where you don’t really know who is going to show up. Oklahoma St beat number one Kansas last month but got smashed by Kansas St in their final game in the Big 12 tournament. And Georgia Tech has its moments too where you see them playing to their extremely high talent level, but it doesn’t happen near enough. I love James Anderson for Oklahoma St and think he’s one of the most dangerous players in the tournament, but I think Georgia Tech has the athletes to throw at him, and the size inside to challenge his drives. And although I don’t trust Georgia Tech’s guards at all, they did make it to the ACC Championship game and had a chance to win. And their frontline of Derrick Favors, Gani Lawal, and Zachary Peacock off the bench is one of the best in the country and will probably be too much for Oklahoma St if their guards can manage to get them the ball. Winner – Georgia Tech
• (2) Ohio St vs. (15) UCSB - Evan Turner and Ohio St should cruise to victory in the first round. And if it’s close at all, I’ve got a feeling that UCSB doesn’t have anybody who can guard Evan Turner. Winner – Ohio St

Round 2

• (1) Kansas vs. (8) Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa is a nice team, and they’ll make this one a grinder, but the thing about Kansas is that they have the personnel where I feel like they can win playing any style. Winner – Kansas
• (4) Maryland vs. (5) Michigan St - I don’t love either of these clubs, but I worry about how Michigan St finished the season. And they really haven’t been that impressive all year in the games that I’ve watched. So, as much as I love Izzo and Kalin Lucas, I think Maryland has the better basketball team. This should be a good game though. Winner – Maryland
• (3) Georgetown vs. (6) Tennessee - Tennessee has proven that they can beat anybody on a given day, but I think as long as Georgetown plays well, they’re a tough matchup for Tennessee. Chris Wright and Austin Freeman for Georgetown can make shots and have the advantage in the backcourt, but it may be up to Greg Monroe to step up and have a big game against a good defensive team in Tennessee. Georgetown has almost no depth, so if the Vols can get Monroe or one the guards in foul trouble, this one could get interesting. I like Georgetown to advance though.  Winner – Georgetown
• (2) Ohio St vs. (10) Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech could present some real problems for Ohio St if these two end up playing each other. Ohio St is another team with no depth, and they are especially thin inside, where Georgia Tech should have a big advantage on the glass and on offense if they can pound it inside. I just don’t believe in the consistency of Georgia Tech to win two in row though. And as much as I love Evan Turner, Ohio St has great balance around him in other guys who can play off him and make shots and hold their own defensively, even though they’re small inside and don’t use their bench. I think Ohio St wins, but this isn’t a great matchup for them. Winner – Ohio St

Sweet 16

• (1) Kansas vs. (4) Maryland - I don’t think Maryland has near enough talent to beat Kansas in this one. Greivis Vasquez may be able to have a big game and keep it close, but Kansas pretty much has the advantage in all facets of this matchup. Winner – Kansas
• (2) Ohio St vs. (3) Georgetown - This should be a great game if it ends up happening. I think we’ll see efficient offense and from both teams and a fun game to watch, but I think Ohio St’s lack of size could catch up to them here against Greg Monroe. Again, neither of these teams goes deep into their bench at all, so fouls are always key, but I think Georgetown matches up well. The thing I worry about with Georgetown in this matchupgetting out on all of the shooters of Ohio St in John Diebler, David Lighty, and William Buford. The Buckeyes play four perimeter guys, and Georgetown town plays Julian Vaughn, another big man, along with Monroe. That could present some problems, but they can use it to their advantage on the offensive end too. I debated over this pick a bit, but I’m going with Georgetown. And man do I hate picking against Evan Turner. Winner – Georgetown

Elite 8

• (1) Kansas vs. (3) Georgetown - Georgetown may actually match up better than most teams do with Kansas. They have plenty of size, good guard play, they can make shots, and they run the Princeton offense, which should make the Jayhawks work on defense. Ultimately though, I think Kansas is the best team in the country and will come out of this bracket. They’ve Sherron Collins running the point, Xavier Henry making shots on the wing, Cole Aldrich and Marcus Morris up front, and all of their roles players that seem to be getting used to what they need to do to help the team win games. So, for my last team in the Final Four, I’m going with Kansas. Winner – Kansas

So far I’ve done previews of the West Region and the South Region, and now I’m tackling the East Regional, which looks to be the second toughest of the four, highlighted by top seeded Kentucky and Big East tourney champ West Virgina, who many thought would receive a number one seed. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis.

 
What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Wisconsin (3), Kentucky (6), West Virginia (9), Texas(15), Clemson(17), Missouri(18), Temple (20), Marquette (28), Washington (29), New Mexico (43), Wake Forest (51), Cornell (66), Wofford (87), Montana (104), East Tennessee St (137), Morgan St (148)
• The Top Dogs- Wisconsin, Kentucky, and West Virginia are the teams that looks to be top notch according to the numbers. They’re  all solid on both sides of the ball with rankings in the top 25. Wisconsin is the surprise with an offensive efficiency ranking of 13 and defensive efficiency ranking of 7. Kentucky is ranked 18th on offense and 11th on defense, while West Virginia is 12th on O and 25th on D. Right behind them is Texas, who is 26th on offense and 24th on defense. Washington is pretty even on both ends too with solid efficiency rankings off 32 on O and 27 on D.
• The Stingy Defenses - Temple leads the way here. They’re 80th on offense, but they’re 3rd in the country on defense. Clemson is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 47th on offense and 10th on D., while their 1st round opponent, Missouri  is ranked 37 on O and 9 on D. Wake Forest also has decent defensive numbers with an efficiency ranking  of 26 on D and a less impressive 95 on O.
• The Offensive Standouts - Marquette, New Mexico, and Cornell are the teams that are more efficient on offense. Marquette ranks 24th in offensive efficiency and 50th on defense. New Mexico is 21st on O and just 87th on D. And Cornell is a solid 28th on offense and a poor 138th on defense.
• Mediocre on Both Ends- You could argue that Washington and maybe Texas belong here, but they’re better than mediocre on both ends I think. 

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which teams have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top 2010 NBA Draft prospects. There is a lot of talent in this region.

• Legit NBA Talent - John Wall (Kentucky), DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky), Damion James (Texas), Avery Bradley (Texas), Jordan Hamilton (Texas), Quincy Pondexter (Washington), Trevor Booker (Clemson), Darington Hobson (New Mexico), Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest)
• Fringe Prospects - Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia), Devin Ebanks (West Virginia), Dexter Pittman (Texas), Lazar Hayward (Marquette), Ryan Wittman (Cornell)
• Need More Time To Tell - Kevin Jones (West Virginia), Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Kim English (Missouri), Abdul Gaddy (Washington), Juan Fernandez (Temple), J’Covan Brown (Texas)

The Picks

 
Round 1

• (1) Kentucky vs. (16) East Tennessee St - Kentucky should steamroll through round 1, but they have had a history of making some games tougher than they should be. Winner – Kentucky
• (8) Texas Vs. (9) Wake Forest - This is a battle of a couple of talented teams who stunk it up towards the end of the season. Neither is coming in with any positive momentum at all, really. With that said, I’m picking the team with the better players, and that is Texas. I think they’re definitely the superior team if they play well, and probably even if they just play decent. Both teams have good size and an athletic, future NBA player at the 4 position in Damion James for Texas and Al-Farouq Aminu for Wake Forest. Another key will be the Texas guards containment of Ish Smith off the dribble. Smith is an absolute blur and maybe the fastest player in all of college basketball, and Texas lost their best perimeter defender in Dogus Balbay, to a season ending ACL tear. Freshmen Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton can be the difference makers for Texas though. Both are capable of big games scoring the ball, especially Hamilton, who still really doesn’t have any idea of what is or isn’t a good shot. I’m betting on one of them to have a big game, and for Texas to pull out the victory. Winner – Texas
• (5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell - This should be a great game. It’s going to be a battle of Temple’s stingy perimeter defense guarding the arc against a Cornell team that is capable of going nuts from behind the 3 point line, led by Ryan Wittman. Although picking Cornell will be a popular 12-5 upset pick, I’m going to go with Temple. They have size on the frontline, they’re great defensively, and efficient offensively behind the leadership of crafty, sophomore guard Jaun Fernandez. Winner – Temple
• (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Wofford - This is another upset pick that I’m not feeling at all. Bo Ryan always has his team playing efficiently on both ends of the floor, and they rarely beat themselves and lose to weaker teams. And with John Leuer back in the lineup after recovering from injury, I think the Badgers are good bet to win this one with less trouble than people may be expecting. Winner – Wisconsin
• (6) Marquette vs. (11) Washington -  This should be a battle of a couple of perimeter oriented teams that are actually pretty evenly matched. Marquette plays really hard and is led by versatile forward Lazar Hayward, while Washington is probably the more talented team and has won its last seven games in a row. This one should be up tempo and should have plenty of 3 pointers flying, but I’m going with the more talented Huskies, who seem to be playing with a bit more confidence of late. Some will argue that Marquette is great at winning close games, but I think too many of those, and you’re just flirting with a loss. Winner – Washington
•  (3) New Mexico vs. (14) Montana - I think this game will be much more interesting than people think. New Mexico can spread you out with their 3 point shooting and 4 out-1 in offense, but they don’t really have any inside game, and their lack of defense  can sometimes keep opponents in the game. Anthony Johnson and Montana can put points on the board, so if they get hot they may be able to keep it close. Ultimately though, New Mexico should pull it out and advance. Winner – New Mexico
• (7) Clemson vs. (10) Missouri - This a matchup of two very similar teams who like to press, play solid defense, and can have some trouble scoring in the halfcourt. Taking care of the ball offensively and forcing turnovers on defense could be the difference. I’m going with Trevor Booker and Clemson in this one though. He’s a load inside and has become a much more skilled player facing the basket and putting it on the floor or posting up. And Missouri isn’t the same on the frontline this season after losing DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons from last year’s squad. This one could go either way if a team gets hot from 3, but I give Clemson the slight edge here. Winner – Clemson
• (2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan St - I’m not going to spend too much time on this game as West Virginia is clearly the better team and would really have to stink it up to lose this one. Winner – West Virginia

Round 2

• (1) Kentucky vs. (8) Texas - This is definitely a scary matchup for top seeded Kentucky. Texas is one of the few teams in the country that can come come to matching them when it comes to talent. Texas will need Dexter Pittman to stay out of foul trouble and on the floor to give them a chance. If he can somewhat neutralize DeMarcus Cousins, then it comes down to Freshman perimeter players, Bradley, Hamilton, and J’Covan Brown to step up and play a smart, consistent game. Damion James has pretty much been a beast for them all season, but the rest of the guys have all been so up and down. And as talented as they are, they still don’t have the horses that Kentucky does. I’m going with Kentucky in this one, but Texas does have the potential to make it a good game. Winner – Kentucky
• (4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Temple - If this game happens, it will be a battle of two efficient teams in the halfcourt who play solid defense. I like Temple here though. I like the ability of their backcourt of Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez to be able to create, and I like that they’re hot coming in having won their last ten in row. This should be a battle though. Winner – Temple
• (3) New Mexico vs. (11) Washington - I’m going with the upset here. Neither team has much inside but both have tons of firepower, so it may come down to who gets hot from the perimeter. The matchup of Quincy Pondexter for Washington and Darington Hobson of New Mexico should be a good one. Both are very good all around players. I think Washington has the athletes to guard the perimeter and get out on New Mexico’s shooters, and I think Isiah Thomas, the small, quick, high scoring point guard could be a tough cover for New Mexico.  Winner – Washington
• (2) West Virginia vs. (7) Clemson - West Virginia is definitely the better team here, but they play a lot of close games, so anything can happen. The other big thing in this matchup is that Clemson loves to press, and West Virginia has very shaky point guard play. If Clemson can force some turnovers and convert those turnovers into points, this will be a close game. West Virginia is the better team though and should be able to better execute if this turns into a halfcourt game. And if it’s close down the stretch, we’ve now seen plenty of times that D’Sean Butler is capable of bailing the Mountaineers out. Winner – West Virginia

Sweet 16

• (1) Kentucky vs. (5) Temple - I can see why a lot of people aren’t picking Kentucky to make the Final 4. They’ve shown throughout the season that they can be vulnerable, and this matchup (or even Wisconsin) could be a dangerous one for them. Temple will try and slow this one down as much as possible and limit the possessions, and they’ll do their best on the defensive end too. I believe in John Wall though. He’s proven to be a gamer all season, and I think he’ll lead them to a win in a grinder with DeMarcus Cousins doing a lot of damage inside in the halfcourt. Winner – Kentucky
• (2) West Virgina vs. (11) Washington - This is probably my upset special for the whole tournament right here. I think Washington is athletic enough that WVU’s length won’t bother them as it does many other teams. And I think Isiah Thomas could be a very tough cover for the Mountaineers. West Virginia usually only plays one guard at a time – either Truck Bryant or Joe Mazzulla, and it will be interesting to see if they put them on Thomas, or try the bigger, longer Devin Ebanks, who is their best defender and usually covers the other team’s best player. I think Thomas would be too quick for him though. And I don’t think West Virginia has a strong enough inside game to punish Washington inside either. As I said before, West Virginia plays a lot of close games, and at some point, that may catch up with them. I’m going out on limb and saying they get upset here by the Huskies.  Winner – Washington

Elite 8

• (1) Kentucky vs. (11) Washington - I’ve noted that Kentucky’s last couple games could be very tough matchups for them depending who they’re playing, but I think they’d have less to worry about in this one if it happens. Kentucky has the athletes to cover Quincy Pondexter on the wing in Darnell Dodson or Darius Miller, while John Wall and Eric Bledsoewill be even speedier than Washington’s backcourt. Washington has no answer at all for DeMarcus Cousins inside either. And I haven’t even mentioned power forward Patrick Patterson, a potential lottery pick in the year’s NBA Draft. There are many Kentucky doubters out there, but they’ve only lost 2 game all year, they won the SEC regular season and conference tournament, and they have the best talent of any roster in the country. That’s enough to make me pick them to advance to the Final Four. Winner – Kentucky

I started off with a preview of the West Region, which I said was the weakest of the four regions. But after looking a little closer at this South Regional, man is it brutal. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis.

 
What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Duke (2), Baylor (11), Purdue (13), California (14), Villanova (16), Utah St (21), Texas A&M (22), Old Dominion (34), Louisville (39), Notre Dame (40), St Mary’s (41), Richmond (48), Siena (59), Sam Houston St (102), Robert Morris (188), Arkansas Pine Bluff (220)
• The Top Dog- Duke is the team that looks to be top notch according to the numbers. They’re solid on both sides of the ball with an offensive efficiency ranking of 2 and defensive efficiency ranking of 5.
• The Stingy Defenses - Purdue is the first one here. They’re 50th on offense (and probably much worse than that now without Robbie Hummel), but 6th in the country on defense (also worse now without Hummel but not hurt as bad as the offense). Old Dominion is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 73rd on offense and 15th on D. Texas A&M  is pretty solid on both ends but better on defense ranked 37 on O and 22 on D. Richmond is also 34th on D and 68th on O.
• The Offensive Standouts - Baylor is a powerhouse on the offensive end as it ranks 4th in offensive efficiency but 48th on defense, and  Villanova is 8th on O and 63rd on D. Notre Dame is the most extreme case as they’re 5th offensively and only 143rd on defense. And the California – Louisville matchup features good offense as well as Cal is 3rd in the country in offense and 81st on D, while Louisville is 20th on offense and 78th on D. St Mary’s is another solid offensive team in this bracket with an efficiency ranking of 19 and defensive ranking of 82. And Utah St caps off this lots of offensive but not much defense region as they rank 14 on O and 53rd on D.
• Mediocre on Both Ends- Siena seems to be pretty average on both ends with an offensive ranking of 66 and defensive ranking of 58.

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which teams have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top prospects for the 2010 NBA Draft. This region is by far the weakest in this area.

• Legit NBA Talent - Kyle Singler (Duke), Ekpe Udoh (Baylor)
• Fringe Prospects - Jon Scheyer (Duke), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova), JaJuan Johnson(Purdue), Luke Harangody (Notre Dame), Omar Samhan (St Mary’s)
• Need More Time To Tell - Mason Plumlee (Duke), Mouphtaou Yarou (Villanova), Maalik Wayns (Villanova)

The Picks

Round 1

• (1) Duke vs. (16) Arkansas Pine Bluff - This should be the typical 1 vs 16 game where Duke wins without any trouble. Winner – Duke
• (8) California Vs. (9) Louisville - This should be a high scoring affair as both teams like to get out in transition and shoot the 3 ball. Cal played a very tough schedule early on but lost all of their big games, though they were playing without one of their top players in Theo Robertson. They finished their season winning 9 of their last 11 though including a close loss to Washington in the Pac 10 final. And although Louisville did manage two big wins against Syracuse, I don’t think they’re very good. Samardo Samuels can be a load for some teams to handle inside, but the late season play of Jamal Boykin from Cal has made him at least the equal of Samuels. And I think the Jerome Randle-Theo Robertson-Patrick Christopher trio on the perimeter is about as strong as you’re going to find offensively. They have a ton of firepower, and I think it’ll be too much for Louisville to handle. Winner – California
• (5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah St - This game is a tough call here. I love the Big 12 this season, and Texas A&M has been solid all season beating the teams that they’re supposed to beat. They’re going to be more athletic than Utah St, but I watched Utah St in the WAC tourney, and although they lost to New Mexico St in a close game, I really liked the way they play. They won 17 in a row prior to that against a pretty decent WAC schedule, have skilled guys who know how to play, and they have juniors and seniors who are used to winning. I think this will be a great game, but I’m going with Utah St in the upset. Winner – Utah St
• (4) Purdue vs. (13) Siena - At this point, going with Purdue here is like picking the underdog. Siena has won their 1st round game the last 2 years, and with Purdue losing Robbie Hummel and putting up a huge stinker against Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney, everybody seems to think they’re cooked here. I’m not buying though. I saw Siena play twice this year, against Butler and Niagara, and they they lost both games and didn’t really impress me much. And although Purdue obviously isn’t the same team with Hummel, I believe in Matt Painter and think he’ll have his guys ready to play. They’ll play their trademark defense, and I think JaJaun Johnson will be too much to handle inside for a Siena team without much size. Winner – Purdue
• (6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Old Dominion - This is one where everybody seems to love Notre Dame after their strong close to the season where they seemed to incorporate Luke Harangody well after losing him for a bit. Their offense is outstanding, and they learned to play efficient at a slower pace towards the end of the season, which I think will help them in the tournament. Old Dominion is a good team though with solid defensive numbers. I don’t know enough about them to pick them against a hot Notre Dame team though. Winner – Notre Dame
•  (3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston St - Baylor has been my number one underrated team all season, and I think they roll here. Winner – Baylor
• (7) Richmond vs. (10) St Mary’s - This is a tough game here with two teams that I’d probably pick to win a game if they weren’t playing against each other. St Mary’s has a really good, skilled center in Omar Samhan, and they surround with some really good shooters in Matthew Dellavedova, Mickey McConnell, and Ben Allen. They can really put points on the board when they get hot. I really like Richmond though. They have 2 guards in Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez, who I think will really give St Mary’s trouble with their ability to dribble penetrate and shoot from the perimeter. And they run a Princeton offense and make great reads. Justin Harper is a skilled big inside and Ryan Butler is a wing player who can contribute in a lot of ways. I think the top of the Atlantic 10 was strong this year, and I’m picking Richmond to advance. Winner – Richmond
• (2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris - Another game where the 2 seed Villanova just has far too much for Robert Morris. Winner – Villanova

Round 2

• (1) Duke vs. (8) California - I like Duke here, but not as easily as most people would think. California can score with anybody, and these are 2 teams that rely a lot on shooting the 3 ball. If the Kyle Singler-Jon Scheyer-Nolan Smith trio for Duke isn’t shooting the ball well, and the Cal guys are, then Duke could get tripped up here. I think the difference though is Duke being more consistent on the defensive end, and all the size they have this season, which should really help them own the boards in this matchup. Jamal Boykin for Cal will probably bring his A-game and want to prove his worth, as he transferred  from Duke after 2 years of limited playing time. In the end though, Duke should get the job done and advance.  Winner – Duke
• (4) Purdue vs. (12) Utah St - While I do see Matt Painter having his team well prepared, I think winning 2 games with their lack of size and offensive firepower might be too much to ask. Utah St is very efficient offensively and is a better basketball team than the Siena squad that the Boilers will face in round 1. With Robbie Hummel this would be a different story, but this is where I see it ending for Purdue.  Winner – Utah St
• (3) Baylor vs. (6) Notre Dame -This game should be a ton of fun to watch with two dynamic offenses going head to head. Baylor is going to have to guard the arc really tough, but I think the their size and length of their frontcourt gives them the advantage. They’ll make it tough on Harangody while still being able to get out on their shooters. And offensively, I think LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter could have a field day creating off the dribble. I’m sticking with Baylor. Winner – Baylor
• (2) Villanova vs. (7) Richmond - The strength of Villanova is their guards, especially Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, both who are fearless about making plays and taking big shots. This Richmond backcourt is just as tough though, and they’ll really make a weak Villanova defense work as they run their Princeton offense. I think losing Dante Cunningham from last year’s Villanova team was a bigger deal than what’s it’s been made to be. Antonio Pena is  nice player but nowhere near what Cunningham was last year. He gave them a really tough, strong, presence on their frontline who could also score and make shots. I think they really lack that this year, and this Richmond team is going to be able to match up with them well. I’m picking the upset here. Winner – Richmond

Sweet 16

• (1) Duke vs. (12) Utah St - Utah St is a nice team and all, but this is one of the best teams Duke has had in awhile, and I think the rebounding and defense of the Blue Devils will be better than the Utah St offense here. Kyle Singler is going to be really tough for Utah St to match up with too. Winner – Duke
• (3) Baylor vs. (7) Richmond- A couple great backcourts facing each other here, but I still like Baylor. I think they’ve got a big leg up in athleticism, and I think Ekpe Udohwill be a tough cover for Richmond. He’s 6′10″ with long arms, and he’s become a very skilled offensive player both posting up and facing up. He has a nice touch on his jumper, and he’s a got a very good feel for the game. I think Baylor’s talent, size, and athleticism will be too much for Richmond here. Winner – Baylor

Elite 8

• (1) Duke vs. (3) Baylor – This will be a great matchup if it happens. I think ultimately though, the Baylor guards will give Duke fits with their ability to dribble penetrate and create offense. And this will be one of the few teams Duke faces that is just as big if not bigger than they are. I’ve been really high on Baylor all year as a team that I’ve thought has been much better than their ranking, and I’m sticking to my guns here and picking them to make it to the Final Four in Indianapolis.  Winner – Baylor

As I begin breaking down the 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket, I’m starting with the West Regional. It seems that the consensus is that the South Region (Duke’s bracket) is the weakest, but I think this one is even softer. Syracuse will probably be playing at least the first weekend without starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but if they can get through that and play well the second weekend, then I think they’re easily the best team here. Anything can happen in March Madness, but Syracuse, along with Kentucky and Kansas, have been the best teams in the country all season long. Here’s a closer look at what the Cuse will face as they try to make their way to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Syracuse (5), BYU (7), Kansas St (9), Florida St (19), Xavier (22), Minnesota (25), Butler (26), Pitt (30), UTEP (33), Vanderbilt (36), Florida (50), Gonzaga (56), Murray St (57), Vermont (129), Oakland (141), North Texas (169)
• The Top Dogs- Three teams in this reason look to be top notch according to the numbers. Syracuse is solid on both sides of the ball with an offensive efficiency ranking of 9 and defensive efficiency ranking of 20. BYU is right behind as 12th on offense and 21st on defense. And Kansas St 16th on O and 19th on D.
• The Stingy Defenses - Florida St is an interesting case. They’re 119th on offense, but 1st in the country on defense. Butler is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 55th on offense and 15th on D. As is their 1st round opponent, UTEP, which is 78th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency.
• The Offensive Standouts – Xavier stands out on the offensive end as it ranks 15th in offensive efficiency and 50th on defense. Vanderbilt is 25th on O and 64th on D, and Florida is 34th offensively and 70th on defense. Minnesota is 23rd in offensive efficiency and 45 in defensive efficiency.
• Mediocre on Both Ends – Pittsburgh is fairly close with their rankings on both ends at 41 on offense and 34 on defense. Gonzaga is 44 on O and 67 on D. Murray St is 68th offensively and 45th defensively.

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top prospects for the 2010 NBA Draft.

• Legit NBA Talent - Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Solomon Alabi (Florida St), Chris Singleton (Florida St), Elias Harris(Gonzaga), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Jeff Taylor (Vanderbilt)
• Fringe Prospects – Matt Bouldin (Gonzaga), Jimmer Fredette (BYU), Jordan Crawford (Xavier), Andrew Ogilvy (Vanderbilt), Derrick Caracter (UTEP)
• Need More Time To Tell – Xavier Gibson (Florida St), Michael Snaer (Florida St), Robert Sacre (Gonzaga), Arnett Moultrie (UTEP), Keith Benson (Oakland), Chandler Parsons (Florida), Kenny Boynton (Florida), Jamar Samuels (Kansas St)

The Picks

Round 1

• (1) Syracuse vs. (16) Vermont – Not much needs to be said about this one. Syracuse should cruise to round 2. Winner – Syracuse
• (8) Gonzaga Vs. (9) Florida St- This is an interesting matchup. Florida St is an excellent defense club, especially in the frontcourt led by 7′2″ Solomon Alabi and 6′9″ Chris Singleton, who plays the small forward position and has the ability to defend multiple positions and cause a lot of problems with his combination of size, length, and athleticism. Offensively it’s a different story though, and they really struggle to score. And I think Gonzaga actually has enough size and athleticism of it’s own to matchup inside in Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. If Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray, who aren’t great athletes, can figure out how to create a little bit off the dribble and make some shots, then they’ll be in good shape. Gonzaga definitely has more skilled basketball players, but it’s all going to be about overcoming the physical advantages held by Florida St. I’m going with the better offense in this one. Winner – Gonzaga
• (5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP – Here’s another case similar to the last game where UTEP has a huge advantage in size and athleticism that Butler will have to overcome. Unfortunately, this Butler team doesn’t shoot the 3 ball as well as teams in past years. And their big man, Matt Howard, will have a tough time staying out of foul trouble going up against UTEP big man Derrick Caracter, who is a load inside. Randy Culpepper for UTEP is the x-factor though. If he scores like he has most of this season, then I think UTEP will be too much for Butler to handle. Winner – UTEP
• (4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray St- This seems to be popular upset pick, but I’m not buying it. Vandy has been a little bit up and down this season, but they have a solid point guard in Jermaine Beal, a skilled big in the post in Andrew Ogilvy, and a big time athlete on the wing in Jeff Taylor. I think they have a well balanced team and can play at different tempos, and although I think Murray St will give them a good run, I’m picking Vandy to advance. Winner – Vanderbilt
• (6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota -I’m not crazy about either of these teams, although both can be impressive at times. I’m going to go with the Xavier, who has been more consistently good, and has a player in Jordan Crawford, who is capable of blowing up and carrying them offensively. Winner – Xavier
• (3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Oakland – Pitt isn’t spectacular, but they are solid and beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Oakland just won’t have enough in this one. Winner – Pittsburgh
• (7) BYU vs. (10) Florida- This should be a good game. Florida has a dangerous but streaky backcourt in Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton that may give BYU a bit of trouble if they’re making shots. And they do have plenty of size across the frontline too. Ultimately though, I think BYU has a more solid, skilled basketball team and Jimmer Fredette is another league than the Florida guards are at this point. This might be a fun one, but I’m going with BYU. Winner – BYU
• (2) Kansas St vs. (15) North Texas- Not much to say here. Kansas St too much for North Texas with their two guards who can fill it up, and they’re deep, big, tough frontcourt. Winner – Kansas St

Round 2

• (1) Syracuse vs. (8) Gonzaga- Syracuse will be thin inside without Onuaku, so Rick Jackson staying out of foul trouble will be a huge factor. If Gonzaga can draw a few fouls on him early, things could get interesting. The Zags have a couple guys who can shoot over the zone as well in Bouldin and Gray. Ultimately though, Syracuse is the superior team here in all facets and should be able to escape. Winner – Syracuse
• (4) Vanderbilt vs. (12) UTEP – This could be another great game if it happens. These are two teams that I’ve thought were underrated since early in the season, especially UTEP. I’ve gone back & forth on this one a bit, but I like Vandy’s balance offensively, and I don’t think they’ll be overwhelmed by the size and athleticism of UTEP. The Winner – Vanderbilt
• (3) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Xavier – I think this is a weaker part of the bracket, but somebody has to move on to the Sweet 16. Pitt is tough, unselfish, and well coached, but I think Xavier has a little too much firepower in this one. Winner – Xavier
• (2) Kansas St vs. (7) BYU- BYU is solid on both ends, but I think Kansas St is a bad matchup for them. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente for Kansas St are two guards who can both shoot the 3 and penetrate off the dribble. They’ll have the quickness advantage in the backcourt, and the Kansas St bigs will have the physical advantage up front too. Winner – Kansas St

Sweet 16

• (1) Syracuse vs. (4) Vanderbilt- Assuming Syracuse has Onuaku back for this one, I think the Orange will be ready to roll. Vandy does have the talent and balance to make this a good game though. The Winner – Syracuse
• (2) Kansas St vs. (6) Xavier – These two teams played in December, and Kansas St won 71-56. I would expect Kansas St to win this one too, but I think it will be closer. The physical nature and overall toughness of Kansas St should prevail though. Winner – Kansas St

Elite 8

• (1) Syracuse vs. (2) Kansas St – Kansas St does have the guards that can shoot over top of the Syracuse zone, but I don’t know that they have the skill in the frontcourt to match the Orange. Syracuse has been a top 3 team all season, and I think they’ll keep it going here and punch their ticket to the Final Four. Winner – Syracuse