The Hoops Junkie

As I begin breaking down the 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket, I’m starting with the West Regional. It seems that the consensus is that the South Region (Duke’s bracket) is the weakest, but I think this one is even softer. Syracuse will probably be playing at least the first weekend without starting center, Arinze Onuaku, but if they can get through that and play well the second weekend, then I think they’re easily the best team here. Anything can happen in March Madness, but Syracuse, along with Kentucky and Kansas, have been the best teams in the country all season long. Here’s a closer look at what the Cuse will face as they try to make their way to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Syracuse (5), BYU (7), Kansas St (9), Florida St (19), Xavier (22), Minnesota (25), Butler (26), Pitt (30), UTEP (33), Vanderbilt (36), Florida (50), Gonzaga (56), Murray St (57), Vermont (129), Oakland (141), North Texas (169)
• The Top Dogs- Three teams in this reason look to be top notch according to the numbers. Syracuse is solid on both sides of the ball with an offensive efficiency ranking of 9 and defensive efficiency ranking of 20. BYU is right behind as 12th on offense and 21st on defense. And Kansas St 16th on O and 19th on D.
• The Stingy Defenses - Florida St is an interesting case. They’re 119th on offense, but 1st in the country on defense. Butler is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 55th on offense and 15th on D. As is their 1st round opponent, UTEP, which is 78th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency.
• The Offensive Standouts – Xavier stands out on the offensive end as it ranks 15th in offensive efficiency and 50th on defense. Vanderbilt is 25th on O and 64th on D, and Florida is 34th offensively and 70th on defense. Minnesota is 23rd in offensive efficiency and 45 in defensive efficiency.
• Mediocre on Both Ends – Pittsburgh is fairly close with their rankings on both ends at 41 on offense and 34 on defense. Gonzaga is 44 on O and 67 on D. Murray St is 68th offensively and 45th defensively.

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top prospects for the 2010 NBA Draft.

• Legit NBA Talent - Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Solomon Alabi (Florida St), Chris Singleton (Florida St), Elias Harris(Gonzaga), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Jeff Taylor (Vanderbilt)
• Fringe Prospects – Matt Bouldin (Gonzaga), Jimmer Fredette (BYU), Jordan Crawford (Xavier), Andrew Ogilvy (Vanderbilt), Derrick Caracter (UTEP)
• Need More Time To Tell – Xavier Gibson (Florida St), Michael Snaer (Florida St), Robert Sacre (Gonzaga), Arnett Moultrie (UTEP), Keith Benson (Oakland), Chandler Parsons (Florida), Kenny Boynton (Florida), Jamar Samuels (Kansas St)

The Picks

Round 1

• (1) Syracuse vs. (16) Vermont – Not much needs to be said about this one. Syracuse should cruise to round 2. Winner – Syracuse
• (8) Gonzaga Vs. (9) Florida St- This is an interesting matchup. Florida St is an excellent defense club, especially in the frontcourt led by 7′2″ Solomon Alabi and 6′9″ Chris Singleton, who plays the small forward position and has the ability to defend multiple positions and cause a lot of problems with his combination of size, length, and athleticism. Offensively it’s a different story though, and they really struggle to score. And I think Gonzaga actually has enough size and athleticism of it’s own to matchup inside in Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. If Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray, who aren’t great athletes, can figure out how to create a little bit off the dribble and make some shots, then they’ll be in good shape. Gonzaga definitely has more skilled basketball players, but it’s all going to be about overcoming the physical advantages held by Florida St. I’m going with the better offense in this one. Winner – Gonzaga
• (5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP – Here’s another case similar to the last game where UTEP has a huge advantage in size and athleticism that Butler will have to overcome. Unfortunately, this Butler team doesn’t shoot the 3 ball as well as teams in past years. And their big man, Matt Howard, will have a tough time staying out of foul trouble going up against UTEP big man Derrick Caracter, who is a load inside. Randy Culpepper for UTEP is the x-factor though. If he scores like he has most of this season, then I think UTEP will be too much for Butler to handle. Winner – UTEP
• (4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray St- This seems to be popular upset pick, but I’m not buying it. Vandy has been a little bit up and down this season, but they have a solid point guard in Jermaine Beal, a skilled big in the post in Andrew Ogilvy, and a big time athlete on the wing in Jeff Taylor. I think they have a well balanced team and can play at different tempos, and although I think Murray St will give them a good run, I’m picking Vandy to advance. Winner – Vanderbilt
• (6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota -I’m not crazy about either of these teams, although both can be impressive at times. I’m going to go with the Xavier, who has been more consistently good, and has a player in Jordan Crawford, who is capable of blowing up and carrying them offensively. Winner – Xavier
• (3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Oakland – Pitt isn’t spectacular, but they are solid and beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Oakland just won’t have enough in this one. Winner – Pittsburgh
• (7) BYU vs. (10) Florida- This should be a good game. Florida has a dangerous but streaky backcourt in Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton that may give BYU a bit of trouble if they’re making shots. And they do have plenty of size across the frontline too. Ultimately though, I think BYU has a more solid, skilled basketball team and Jimmer Fredette is another league than the Florida guards are at this point. This might be a fun one, but I’m going with BYU. Winner – BYU
• (2) Kansas St vs. (15) North Texas- Not much to say here. Kansas St too much for North Texas with their two guards who can fill it up, and they’re deep, big, tough frontcourt. Winner – Kansas St

Round 2

• (1) Syracuse vs. (8) Gonzaga- Syracuse will be thin inside without Onuaku, so Rick Jackson staying out of foul trouble will be a huge factor. If Gonzaga can draw a few fouls on him early, things could get interesting. The Zags have a couple guys who can shoot over the zone as well in Bouldin and Gray. Ultimately though, Syracuse is the superior team here in all facets and should be able to escape. Winner – Syracuse
• (4) Vanderbilt vs. (12) UTEP – This could be another great game if it happens. These are two teams that I’ve thought were underrated since early in the season, especially UTEP. I’ve gone back & forth on this one a bit, but I like Vandy’s balance offensively, and I don’t think they’ll be overwhelmed by the size and athleticism of UTEP. The Winner – Vanderbilt
• (3) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Xavier – I think this is a weaker part of the bracket, but somebody has to move on to the Sweet 16. Pitt is tough, unselfish, and well coached, but I think Xavier has a little too much firepower in this one. Winner – Xavier
• (2) Kansas St vs. (7) BYU- BYU is solid on both ends, but I think Kansas St is a bad matchup for them. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente for Kansas St are two guards who can both shoot the 3 and penetrate off the dribble. They’ll have the quickness advantage in the backcourt, and the Kansas St bigs will have the physical advantage up front too. Winner – Kansas St

Sweet 16

• (1) Syracuse vs. (4) Vanderbilt- Assuming Syracuse has Onuaku back for this one, I think the Orange will be ready to roll. Vandy does have the talent and balance to make this a good game though. The Winner – Syracuse
• (2) Kansas St vs. (6) Xavier – These two teams played in December, and Kansas St won 71-56. I would expect Kansas St to win this one too, but I think it will be closer. The physical nature and overall toughness of Kansas St should prevail though. Winner – Kansas St

Elite 8

• (1) Syracuse vs. (2) Kansas St – Kansas St does have the guards that can shoot over top of the Syracuse zone, but I don’t know that they have the skill in the frontcourt to match the Orange. Syracuse has been a top 3 team all season, and I think they’ll keep it going here and punch their ticket to the Final Four. Winner – Syracuse 

5 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

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   March 17th, 2010 at 2:02 pm #

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   March 17th, 2010 at 6:58 pm #

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   March 17th, 2010 at 11:15 pm #

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   March 17th, 2010 at 11:42 pm #

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   March 24th, 2010 at 8:01 pm #

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