The Hoops Junkie

 
So far I’ve done previews of the West Region, South Region, and the East Region, so now I’m finally getting to the strongest bracket, which is the Midwest. Kansas was awarded the top overall seed in the tournament by the selection committee, but it certainly looks like they got the toughest draw. Here is the full preview with the same format as before using statistics (Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), talent (probable future NBA players based on my NBA Draft Big Board), and my picks with analysis.

 
What The Numbers Say

If you’re really going to take a full look at these teams, I think part of the equation is checking out the numbers. I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings where each team also has a rating based on their offensive and defensive efficiency (he explains his whole ratings system here).

• Here’s who Pomeroy has as the best teams in the region: Kansas (1), Ohio St (4), Maryland (10), Georgetown (12), Michigan St (24), Georgia Tech (27), Northern Iowa (32), Tennessee (35), UNLV (37), San Diego St (38), Oklahoma St (42), Houston (84), Ohio (100), New Mexico St (115), UCSB (152), Lehigh (182)
• The Top Dogs- Kansas and West Virginia are the teams that look to be top notch on both ends of the floor, according to the numbers. Kansas has the number 1 offensive efficiency ranking in the country, and a defensive efficiency ranking of 4. Ohio St is ranked 7th on offense and a solid 23rd on defense.
• The Stingy Defenses - Tennessee is the first team that stands out when it comes to defense-first teams in this region. They’re 100th on offense, but they’re a very good 8th in the country on defense. Northern Iowa is another team better on the defensive end. They’re 83rd on offense but a very solid 13th on defense. Georgia Tech is the other team here with a ranking of 58 on O and a much better 18 on D. 
• The Offensive Standouts - Georgetown and Maryland are the teams that stand out as being more efficient on offense. Georgetown ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and 33rd on defense, while Maryland ranks on 6th O and 38th on D. And a couple of the lower seeded team fit the bill here too. New Mexico St is a solid 45th on offense and a an atrocious 222nd on defense, while Houston is 39th on O and just 165th on D.
• Mediocre on Both Ends- Some of the middle seeded teams in this region fall in this group where they’re fairly even on both ends in terms of efficiency. Michigan has rankings of 38 on offense and 28 on defense. Oklahoma St is 35th on offense and 62nd on defense. UNLV is ranked 57 on offense and a better 31 on defense. And San Diego St is 42 on O and 43 on D.

What the Talent Says

Another important factor is to simply look at which teams have the most talent. One of the best ways to determine that is by checking out the probable future NBA players are in the bracket. I keep a running Big Board of who I believe are the top 2010 NBA Draft prospects. There is a lot of talent in this region.

• Legit NBA Talent - Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Xavier Henry (Kansas), Sherron Collins (Kansas), Evan Turner (Ohio St), Greg Monroe (Georgetown), Derrick Favors (Georgia Tech), Gani Lawal (Georgia Tech), Kalin Lucas (Michigan St), James Anderson (Oklahoma St)
• Fringe Prospects - Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), Aubrey Coleman (Houston)
• Need More Time To Tell - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Marcus Morris (Kansas), Iman Shumpert (Georgia Tech), William Buford (Ohio St), Kawhi Leonard (San Diego St), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee)

The Picks

 
Round 1

• (1) Kansas vs. (16) Lehigh -The Patriot League champs should be no match for the overall top seeded Jayhawks in round 1. Winner – Kansas
• (8) UNLV vs. (9) Northern Iowa - This is a matchup of a couple teams who unfortunately I only got to see play one time each during the season. I came away more impressed with Northern Iowa though. They looked to be sound defensively and versatile on offense with big bodies and shooters. UNLV will have the edge in terms of athleticism, but my gut has me leaning to Northern Iowa here in probably the first round matchup that I’m least informed about. Winner – Northern Iowa
• (5) Michigan St vs. (12) New Mexico St - New Mexico St can definitely get out in transition and score. They have a couple guards who can really make shots, andthey even won the WAC tournament playing a slightly slower pace, which is a good sign. They’ll be up against a Michigan St team that’s not coming in with much momentum but does have Tom Izzo, who has been as successful in the NCAA tournament as any coach in the country in the past decade. I think New Mexico St might be able to give the Spartans a scare with some hot shooting, but Izzowill have Michigan St ready to play, they’ll defend, win the battle of the boards, and they’ll have a solid point guard leading the way in Kalin Lucas. I think that’s enough for the win. Winner – Michigan St
• (4) Maryland vs. (13) Houston - This game should be another track meet with two teams that can score and like to get out and push the tempo. There’s an outstanding individual matchup in thisone with the nation’s leading scorer, Aubrey Coleman for Houston, and the ACC Player of the Year and big personality Greivis Vasquez. Coleman is extremely tough to stay in front of andcan flat out score, and Houston went on a nice run to win the Conference USA Tournament, but I think Maryland is probably too much for them to handle. Coleman could keep this interesting, and it will probably be fun to watch, but I think the Terps come away with the victory. Winner – Maryland
• (6) Tennessee vs. (11) San Diego St -  This is another great matchup of two very athletic basketball teams. San Diego St plays across the frontline with three extremely athletic forwards in Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, and Kawhi Leonard. All three are versatile, can run the floor, and step away from the basket offensively, but I think Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee team has the personnel keep them in check in guys like JP Prince, Wayne Chism, and Kenny Hall. AndPearl has proven to be a master motivator when it comes to having his team ready play, with proof in their regular season win over then number ones Kansas and Kentucky. Some excellent athleticism will be on display here, and and may come down to who shoots the ball better, but I’m picking Tennessee in a close one. Winner – Tennessee
•  (3) Georgetown vs. (14) Ohio - I don’t really know a thing about Ohio to be honest, but I really like the way Georgetown has been playing, and I’m assuming they’ll have too much talent in this game. Winner – Georgetown
• (7) Oklahoma St vs. (10) Georgia Tech - This is a tough call, and I could go either way here, partly because these are two teams where you don’t really know who is going to show up. Oklahoma St beat number one Kansas last month but got smashed by Kansas St in their final game in the Big 12 tournament. And Georgia Tech has its moments too where you see them playing to their extremely high talent level, but it doesn’t happen near enough. I love James Anderson for Oklahoma St and think he’s one of the most dangerous players in the tournament, but I think Georgia Tech has the athletes to throw at him, and the size inside to challenge his drives. And although I don’t trust Georgia Tech’s guards at all, they did make it to the ACC Championship game and had a chance to win. And their frontline of Derrick Favors, Gani Lawal, and Zachary Peacock off the bench is one of the best in the country and will probably be too much for Oklahoma St if their guards can manage to get them the ball. Winner – Georgia Tech
• (2) Ohio St vs. (15) UCSB - Evan Turner and Ohio St should cruise to victory in the first round. And if it’s close at all, I’ve got a feeling that UCSB doesn’t have anybody who can guard Evan Turner. Winner – Ohio St

Round 2

• (1) Kansas vs. (8) Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa is a nice team, and they’ll make this one a grinder, but the thing about Kansas is that they have the personnel where I feel like they can win playing any style. Winner – Kansas
• (4) Maryland vs. (5) Michigan St - I don’t love either of these clubs, but I worry about how Michigan St finished the season. And they really haven’t been that impressive all year in the games that I’ve watched. So, as much as I love Izzo and Kalin Lucas, I think Maryland has the better basketball team. This should be a good game though. Winner – Maryland
• (3) Georgetown vs. (6) Tennessee - Tennessee has proven that they can beat anybody on a given day, but I think as long as Georgetown plays well, they’re a tough matchup for Tennessee. Chris Wright and Austin Freeman for Georgetown can make shots and have the advantage in the backcourt, but it may be up to Greg Monroe to step up and have a big game against a good defensive team in Tennessee. Georgetown has almost no depth, so if the Vols can get Monroe or one the guards in foul trouble, this one could get interesting. I like Georgetown to advance though.  Winner – Georgetown
• (2) Ohio St vs. (10) Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech could present some real problems for Ohio St if these two end up playing each other. Ohio St is another team with no depth, and they are especially thin inside, where Georgia Tech should have a big advantage on the glass and on offense if they can pound it inside. I just don’t believe in the consistency of Georgia Tech to win two in row though. And as much as I love Evan Turner, Ohio St has great balance around him in other guys who can play off him and make shots and hold their own defensively, even though they’re small inside and don’t use their bench. I think Ohio St wins, but this isn’t a great matchup for them. Winner – Ohio St

Sweet 16

• (1) Kansas vs. (4) Maryland - I don’t think Maryland has near enough talent to beat Kansas in this one. Greivis Vasquez may be able to have a big game and keep it close, but Kansas pretty much has the advantage in all facets of this matchup. Winner – Kansas
• (2) Ohio St vs. (3) Georgetown - This should be a great game if it ends up happening. I think we’ll see efficient offense and from both teams and a fun game to watch, but I think Ohio St’s lack of size could catch up to them here against Greg Monroe. Again, neither of these teams goes deep into their bench at all, so fouls are always key, but I think Georgetown matches up well. The thing I worry about with Georgetown in this matchupgetting out on all of the shooters of Ohio St in John Diebler, David Lighty, and William Buford. The Buckeyes play four perimeter guys, and Georgetown town plays Julian Vaughn, another big man, along with Monroe. That could present some problems, but they can use it to their advantage on the offensive end too. I debated over this pick a bit, but I’m going with Georgetown. And man do I hate picking against Evan Turner. Winner – Georgetown

Elite 8

• (1) Kansas vs. (3) Georgetown - Georgetown may actually match up better than most teams do with Kansas. They have plenty of size, good guard play, they can make shots, and they run the Princeton offense, which should make the Jayhawks work on defense. Ultimately though, I think Kansas is the best team in the country and will come out of this bracket. They’ve Sherron Collins running the point, Xavier Henry making shots on the wing, Cole Aldrich and Marcus Morris up front, and all of their roles players that seem to be getting used to what they need to do to help the team win games. So, for my last team in the Final Four, I’m going with Kansas. Winner – Kansas

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1. Previewing the Sweet 16 – The Midwest Region - The Hoops Junkie
   March 26th, 2010 at 10:32 am #

   [...] Last week I previewed the Midwest and made my predictions, which turned out to be terrible. This region has gone from being the [...]